One problem with starting a blog in April, 2006 is that there's over a decade's worth of internet material out there that I have yet to comment on. A couple of months ago Malcolm Gladwell (the world-famous and completely brilliant author of Blink and The Tipping Point and a writer for the New Yorker) wrote an article called Million-Dollar Murray: Why problems like homelessness may be easier to solve than to manage.
His main point is that we are conditioned in our society to view everything in a bell-curve distribution, but sometimes a hockey-stick curve is more appropriate. In other words, we tend to think everybody contributes roughly equally to social problems, but often it's a few bad apples doing a significant piece of the damage. This kind of distribution is called a Power Law distribution. Anybody familiar with healthcare policy is already familiar with this concept. In healthcare, roughly 15% of the population uses 75% of all healthcare services.
Gladwell begins his analysis with the observation that the same is true for homelessness:
In the nineteen-eighties, when homelessness first surfaced as a national issue, the assumption was that the problem fit a normal distribution: that the vast majority of the homeless were in the same state of semi-permanent distress. It was an assumption that bred despair: if there were so many homeless, with so many problems, what could be done to help them? Then, fifteen years ago, a young Boston College graduate student named Dennis Culhane lived in a shelter in Philadelphia for seven weeks as part of the research for his dissertation. A few months later he went back, and was surprised to discover that he couldn't find any of the people he had recently spent so much time with. "It made me realize that most of these people were getting on with their own lives," he said.
Culhane then put together a database—the first of its kind—to track who was coming in and out of the shelter system. What he discovered profoundly changed the way homelessness is understood. Homelessness doesn't have a normal distribution, it turned out. It has a power-law distribution. "We found that eighty per cent of the homeless were in and out really quickly," he said. "In Philadelphia, the most common length of time that someone is homeless is one day. And the second most common length is two days. And they never come back."
The next ten per cent were what Culhane calls episodic users. They would come for three weeks at a time, and return periodically, particularly in the winter. It was the last ten per cent—the group at the farthest edge of the curve—that interested Culhane the most. They were the chronically homeless, who lived in the shelters, sometimes for years at a time. Many were mentally ill or physically disabled, and when we think about homelessness as a social problem—the people sleeping on the sidewalk, aggressively panhandling, lying drunk in doorways, huddled on subway grates and under bridges—it's this group that we have in mind. In the early nineteen-nineties, Culhane's database suggested that New York City had a quarter of a million people who were homeless at some point in the previous half decade —which was a surprisingly high number. But only about twenty-five hundred were chronically homeless.
It turns out that these few chronically homeless people account for the vast majority of total costs of homelessness to the system. Therefore, he advocates setting up an intensive care unit for the few chronically homeless people, giving them case managers at a 10:1 client to case manager ratio, and even giving them their own efficiency apartment. This is supposed to save the system money because an apartment is much less costly than the several emergency room visits these chronically homeless people make per year (which cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to local hospitals). They're trying it right now in Denver. The goal is to end homelessness, not just keep treating it.
I have a few problems with this approach. First of all, the 80% of the people who only stay in the shelter one or two days still need a shelter to go to. What happens to them if shelters suddenly become unavailable because all of the funding for homelessness is going towards this new program? If there is no safety net of soup kitchens and shelters, do the 10% who are periodically homeless then join the 10% who are chronically homeless? Or, if they keep shelters open to prevent that, are they still saving money over the old system?
Also, just because these people are given case managers and apartments doesn't mean they suddenly are able to kick the rampant addictions which got them to this point in the first place. Now, instead of being on the street while they drink their fifth a day, they have an address to direct the ambulence to when they need to be picked up for detox. I do not say this to be cold-hearted, but it is a reflection of the reality of chronic homelessness.
Lastly and most importantly, there is no guarentee that the chronically homeless even want to be off the streets. Where is the evidence that they want to be a part of society? Many homeless people actually prefer being homeless, as difficult as it is for us to believe. They would rather have no rules and be on the street than live in an apartment with a list of policies to follow. The program in Denver only gave apartments to people who wanted to be a part of their new program, so they at least thought they wanted to be off the streets, but what if they change their minds? Gladwell does concede that a limitation will probably be the program's intended beneficiaries being non-compliant with the treatment. However, it seems to me that it might have been a good idea to check with the homeless to make sure you're providing what they want before you spend millions of dollars giving them what they may not want. In summary, it still seems like homelessness will never be solved, it will always be treated. But this program may be a good piece of an overall framework that treats the problem on several fronts and allows the homeless to live with as much dignity and freedom as possible.